Author Topic:  Lesson II - Arithmic Prediction  (Read 166 times)

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  • Offline Timothy Darien Winchester
  • Lesson II - Arithmic Prediction
    « on: January 07, 2018, 03:35:39 AM »
    Timothy was tired but very excited to be teaching. Timothy was about to give one of his all time favorite lessons. This is the Arithmancy that he knew the students were eager to get to. Now that the formalities were out of the way, the real excitement could begin. Timothy wrote the lesson title on the top of his chalkboard and cleared off all of the desks in the room. He needed the desks completely bare in order for this lesson to be effective. Timothy loved to make his lessons interactive and today he was giving his students the ability to get really hands on with Arithmancy.

    As per usual, Timothy stood by the door and greeted every student by name. He always loved greeting his students by name as it made Timothy seem more like a friend than a rule enforcing professor. The tone to begin class rang out and Timothy closed the door. He went to the front of the room and smiled. He was wearing a white button up which was tucked into black trousers. Timothy began his lesson with his usual bubbly personality.

    "Hello, hello! Welcome back to Arithmancy. Now, I know many of you probably thought that our last lesson was less than exciting, but that will not be a repeat. That was all introduction and that all tends to get a bit boring. However, this lesson, and all from here on out, are going to be much more interactive and will cover the topics that you all have been looking forward to. Now, you'll notice your tables are all bare and that is very much on purpose. You'll need plenty of work space for this lesson."

    Timothy walked over to his chalk board and made four bullet points. "As you can tell by the title on the board, today we're going to cover Arithmic Prediction. This branch of Arithmancy is sometimes referred to as premonition and is most closely associated with Divination. But don't worry, you don't need to have taken Divination to get this. Arithmic Prediction is most commonly used by the general wizarding public to make predictions for every day things such as card games or races. In our case, we're going to tie it to a branch of Divination known as Starlighting. Starlighting is a procedure that was drafted by Artemis Starlight who was a famous Arithmist in Rome. He outlined four essential questions that you must find the answer to in order to make an accurate, or as close to accurate as possible. These questions are:

    1. What do you know? which means what is the given variable.
    2. What do you need to find out? which means the information you are seeking
    3. What is the prediction method you are using? which means what type of prediction are you making, and
    4. What is the nature of what you are predicting? meaning is it something physical and tangible or is it something like a game or race.

    If you can answer at least two of these questions immediately, you will be golden. So, we will be practicing a bit with these. Please stand up, and take your chairs to the side of the room and stand back at your tables."

    @Cameryn White  @Cassiopeia Fawley  @Jacqueline MacClelland  @Lionel Sterling  @Jasper Janus Thorne  @Carey Baisley 

  • Offline Cameryn White
    • have to stop saying "how can i kill my way out of this one" everytime there is trouble going on, or at least not out loud
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    • Ταeδ
    • 1255 / Twelve
    • asexual
    • 379 Posts

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    Re: Lesson II - Arithmic Prediction
    « Reply #1 on: January 11, 2018, 01:57:34 PM »
    For the most part Cameryn quite liked Timothy, her Arithmancy "teacher." Or, excuse her, "Professor Winchester." Even after a year and a half of her charade she still had an overwhelming sense of being far far older than everyone else at Hogwarts, so she felt unbound by requirements of respect and in her headspace and personal time she called nearly everybody by their first names, even if during classes and other school functions she had to use the "proper address" to continue being seen as a good student. As she was saying. Timothy was passionate about his subject and not a complete idiot, and the subject was one that had never been studied, or at least organised, in her day -- math in magic, sometimes using Divination. So the combination usually made for an enjoyable time acting out the part of a twelve-year-old. Today.... today was probably not going to be one of those days.

    Nothing was really going right. DJ had been avoiding her (admittedly out of ignorance rather than fear), and her second attempt at either poisoning him or setting him up as a poisoner had failed miserable on account of the flight of an errant owl. So she'd given up on trying the long-distance, nonchalantly uninvolved method of assassination. She had also barely seen Rasti, and her attempt at knocking him off one of the stairwells had been... "thwarted" was too strong a word when the problem was really that he had an annoying knack for changing his usual trods at the most unexpected times, so he simply never went over the trap. To top it all of, she was lacking several crucial ingredients for an enchantment she thought she could place on one or both of the boys and, if she was lucky, force them to fight each other to the death. So walking into Arithmancy, she was a very unhappy quasquimillennial preteen.

    On the board was written "Arithmic Prediction," and Cameryn, already in a foul spirit, started nitpicking. It was a correct word, if she felt like being fair, but she preferred the older textbook spelling of "arithmantic," much as she used the word "necromantic" on account of being a "necromancer." The mood was set and Cameryn responded to Timothy's cheerful greeting with only a grunt which probably sounded noncommittal but was actually the result of her clamping her mouth shut so she wouldn't start bitching about his methods that day. Or curse him. Which would also be bad.

    Mutely, after the rest of the students had all filed in and sat down, she listened to Timothy's lesson introduction and then scowled. They had already been sat down and now they had to move their chairs away and stand up at their desks? Grumbling to herself, she muttered, "Depulso," and expertly Banished her chair to the far wall, noiselessly landing it neatly an inch from the edge of the room. Like hell was she was going to walk her chair all the way to the wall and then come back. She slid her wand back into its holder (a wonderful invention of the modern age) and stood with her hands at her side, a grumpy but attentive look on her face, waiting for further instruction from Timothy.

    Eeny, meeny, miney, moe, catch a tiger by the toe, you're going to be the one, to be hit by a train

  • Offline Carey Baisley
  • Re: Lesson II - Arithmic Prediction
    « Reply #2 on: January 20, 2018, 04:40:24 AM »
              Carey was hanging out in the halls with his friends, barely noticing his Arithmancy classmates filter through them on the way to class. Well until, Carey noticed his friend froze mid-sentence. Carey watched his friends eyes follow a red maned girl floated past them with a stern but bored look on her face walk down the hall.  It was not until the girl was just out of ear shot his friend exclaim, “You did not tell me you are in class with Cameryn ‘Bloody’ White!”

              Carey turned his head studying the girl's dark silhouette against the warm flaming hair. “Oh, Cameryn. Yeah, I guess I did not really notice her last class. Why?” Carey turned back, studding his friend’s expression. His face exhibited a look of “aw.” Carey found the look undeserving. The girl was nothing to write home about. To Carey she seemed to hold an air about her, the one most Purebloods have. Carey watch Cameryn greeted Professors Winchester and entering class down the hall. Carey glancing back he studied his friends face a second before announcing, “You smitten!?!”

              Carey accusation awoke his dazed friend, who then had to retorted the storm of similar remarks by Carey’s Group. “Listen, if you really like the ravenclaw girl, I can ask her what she thinks of you.”

                “Blimy, Carey. You must be daft! I told you that I am not interested in her. I mean she is scary wicked smart and…” His friend argument lost momentum and Carey realized that his friend was smitten after all. His friend’s final argument, “ I mean, she is always looks a ‘sour puss’ anyway!” was a farce.  It was a name another Girl used to describe Cameryn before his friend gave a nasty but funny retort. At the time Carey just thought it was for a laugh.

                  “See ya, after class.” Carey winked at his friend, and headed straight into class. He ignored his friends mantic hissing, and dismissed a final call to him with a wave. With any luck he could get a seat by Cameryn and ask her a few questions. Maybe see what she likes or who she likes. Most girls don't stop talking.

                  Professor Winchester greeted Carey by the door. Carey awkwardly said “Good Day,’ before entering, reminding himself he was a whole five mins before the bell.   Inside Carey scanned the room for the red headed girl. He had not seen much of her last year, but what he could remember was she usually keeps to herself. This class did not prove different, she sat alone. He snagged the closet chair to her and throw down his bag.

                 He attempted a smile at the red head but she did not see it and instead her glare darted form the teacher to the board and back again. Blimey, What is her problem? Did she get a bad score on something? He looked at the other ravenclaw girls. Most were sitting in clumps and chatting like birds. Some of the older ones stole backwards glances at the professor while whispering and giggling. Carey rolled his eyes, before he got an idea. Carey decided to wait until Cameryn was in a better mood.  Most girls got giddy with this Professor anyway. Suddenly the Professor shut the door and strode to the front.
               Winchester then rambled on about history and some basic questions. Carey started to think that his class was going to be ‘naff’ before the teacher instructed them to move their chairs. Anything class that doesn’t use chairs was always interesting. Carey stood up and went to pick up his chair. In the corner of his eye he notices the Cameryn girl took out her wand and mutter a spell under her breath. Carey decided to follow her example and use “Locomotor.” Although he almost bowl classmates over, he did manage to gingerly deposit his chair on the wall.

             He smiled, throwing his hands up in silent victory, before checking if anyone watched. He thought he caught the eye of Cameryn but he was not sure. He slipped his wand back into his robe pocket before he stood ready at the desk, waiting. He re-examining the basic questions again and wonder how people would have a hard time answering them. 

    @Cameryn White
    « Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 08:22:43 PM by Chaw »

    Re: Lesson II - Arithmic Prediction
    « Reply #3 on: February 08, 2018, 12:56:42 AM »
    Today was one of those days where Annabelle found herself wondering multiple times why she must always be in a constant state of tardiness. She had woken up late, gotten to breakfast late, she was even late to one of her classes today. She couldn't even be upset when the teacher reprimanded her for it. It was truly ridiculous. Running to her next class, Arithmancy, she celebrated a little bit when she made it on time, just barely. Panting, she greeted Professor Winchester with a smile. She was glad her cheeks were already pink from running because his greeting made her blush even more. He was by far her most dreamy professor.

    She took a seat in the middle of the classroom, her favorite spot. It wasn't too close up front, but it wasn't in the back either. Looking around, she smiled at the familiar faces she saw - Carey, whom she'd taken to going on adventures with, her fellow housemates, the like. She didn't dare smile at one of the Ravenclaw girls that sat near her. Anna could never remember her name, but she could never understand why that girl was always glaring. There was so much to be happy about, it didn't make sense. She realized she was probably the last one in the class because shortly after taking a seat, Professor Winchester began.

    Anna would be lying if she said she enjoyed the introductory class. In fact, if it wasn't for meeting Professor Winchester for the first time and getting to hear him talk all lesson, she probably would've fallen asleep. But today seemed slightly better. Slightly. The divination aspect sounded fun. The numbers, not so much. But nevertheless, she listened to her professor. She placed her chair neatly against a wall before returning to her desk. At least they would be doing something really hands on. Besides, if this was something she was good at, she may be able to predict something like the World Cup this summer! That would be an exciting thing. Not that she'd ever gamble, but the prospect was exciting! Maybe she could even help her step-dad in his upcoming election! Yes, upon reflection, Anna smiled and decided she could at least give this a chance. Don't knock it 'til you try it, right?

  • Offline Timothy Darien Winchester
  • Re: Lesson II - Arithmic Prediction
    « Reply #4 on: February 08, 2018, 08:24:56 PM »
    Timothy rolled up his sleeves and swished his wand. From behind his desk, large jars of Every Flavor Beans in tall glass jars landed on each table. He flicked his wand once more and sent goblets of all different sizes to sit beside the jars. "Now, before we get going with this activity, I am going to explain to you what it is we're doing. There are two distinct forms of Arithmic prediction. The first is Voluminous Prediction. This method is used to predict large scale things. This is a method that has helped many Arithmists at a gambling table but we won't be gambling today. The second form is Meager Prediction which is used for small scale predicting. Today, using these beans, jars, and goblets we will do both. It is easier to do a Meager Prediction so that is where we will start. Now, Divination rules dictate that when predicting, you must evaluate the environment surrounding you. You need to be as closed quartered and non-obstructed was you can possibly be. Divination says the reason for that is potential fog or distraction of the mind. Hence why chairs are against the wall. I ask you to open the lid of your jar, put your hand in and grab a hand full, and place them in the goblet." Timothy waited for the students to do so. "Now, to start we need to use the 4 essential questions." Timothy wrote them on the board as he spoke:

    1. What Do You Know? "We know that we have Ever Flavor Beans and a small goblet. These are constants meaning they are defined by only one thing: what they are. Nothing more or less."
    2. What Do You Need to Find Out? "For our Meager Prediction, we are going to predict how many Every Flavor Beans you put into your goblet."
    3. What is the Prediction Method You Are Using? "We are making a meager prediction which means there won't be much intense number work."
    4. What is the Nature of What You Are Predicting? "The nature is tangible objects. We can see, feel, hear, taste, smell both the beans and the goblet."

    Timothy grabbed a handful of beans and put them in another goblet. "So, how does one go about predicting how many beans are in this goblet? With a little wand work, we shall see. Point your wand directly at the beans in the goblet and incant a simple levitation charm." Timothy does so and the beans inside the goblet levitate above it in the same shape and clump as they were in the goblet. "By looking, this appears to be fairly light weight. You know this because you don't have to use much force to keep them in place. You won't feel any resistance with the small amount of beans used. So, I would by just sheer sense say that this clump of beans weighs around 4 ounces, or 1 quarter of a pound. Now, place the beans back in the jar. Write down your weight estimation." Timothy writes his on the board.

    "Now,remove one of the beans from the jar and place it in front of you. Using your fingers, eyeball a size guess. I'd wager 1.27 centimeters or, half an inch. Write that down as well. Now, judge the width and depth of the goblet. I'd say it's 5.08 cm long and 7.62 cm deep. Write that down. Now we have three numbers written on the board. They are:

    4 ounces (Variable A)
    1.27 centimeters (Variable B)
    5.08 cm width and 7.62 cm deep (Variable C and D)

    "Now keep in mind that the B and C and D variables are static meaning there is almost nothing we or anyone else can do to change that. A and B are shifting meaning we can change them. Now, we plug numbers into the Meager Prediction formula. The meager prediction formula is:

    2(A) + B + D/C (divided).

    "Adding in our numbers it looks like this."

    2(4) + 1.27 + 7.62/5.08

    "Now simplify all the way down."

    2 x 4 = 8
    8 + 1.27 = 9.27
    7.62/5.08 = 1.5

    "Now, we have to extend the number 1.5 to it's thousandths place. Like so."


    "Now, we worked with 4 individual variables, but 3 were static meaning we cannot use those because they've already been used to work down to the 1.500. But we have 1 variable left over. This last variable is less than 10 so we move the decimal one place. If it was above 10 but under 20 we'd move it two places. Between 20 and 30 three places, etc. But it's under 10 so we move the decimal one place leaving us with:


    "That is 15. Now, keep in mind predictions are estimates. They won't always be exact, but they will be close. Dump the beans out of the goblet and count them." Timothy does so. "In this goblet there are 16 total beans. Meaning we made the most accurate prediction we could. Now, every person's goblet is a different size so keep that in mind. I want you all to try this on your own. I'll be walking around helping where needed!"

  • Offline Carey Baisley
  • Re: Lesson II - Arithmic Prediction
    « Reply #5 on: February 10, 2018, 07:20:28 PM »
              When Carey caught sight of Anna. He gave a mischievous smirk and cocked his head as a greeting to her. He forgot Anna had this class with him. Cool, He told himself. There is no way this class can be lame with her in it. Remembering the experience they had in the maze, he gave a half laugh, that he hid with a something between a cough and a throat clearing. “Excuse me.” He half whispered at Cameryn.

              Carey watched the Professor roll up his sleeves and swished his wand, Carey could not help to think that the teacher had some style. When the jars of colorful candy landed on his table, Carey’s mood became elated. “Brilliant!” If Carey was ever a Professor, he would have every class use candy. When the Goblet joined the jar, he was sure that they contained pumpkin juice or maybe some lip smacking liquor, like Butter Beer or Mead. But when he looked in the goblet his his face dimmed like a lantern turned down. He was disappointed that it was empty.

              Carey expected that the professor would cast some charm and fill the cups but instead asked them to take a hand full of beans and put them in the goblet. Well at least they get to eat the beans. He eagerly grabbed the Jar before Cameryn. He added the statement, “I’ll open it.” Initially struggling, suddenly the lid came off easily. After a moment of hesitation, Carey placed it in the center of the table and announced, “Ladies first.” He decided to try to be chivalrous, hoping it would cause Cameryn to warm up to him and make it easier to ask her what she thought about his friend.

              After letting Cameryn claimed a thin top layer of beans, Carey scooped a generous proportion allowing them to fall in a cascade into his Goblet. He kept one or two in his hand and popped them into his mouth with a motion disguised as a stretch and yawn. The flavors were apple and backed bean. The combination, although odd, r1eminded his of his mother’s breakfasts during the fall.
    Although containing slightly less history, the Professor was proving to be just as boring as the first class. Professor talked about four points as many of his students anomalous stood while scratched notes on to paper. Carey’s eyes drifting longingly to the candy halfway filling the goblet. He noticed the beans were all laying on their sides likely board to death too. His stomach gurgled, eager for more candy.

              Carey pulled is attention back to the Professor as he started in on the math section. The sooner I get this math done the sooner we get to eat the beans. Carey told himself in a meager attempt to self-motivation. He got out a short piece of parchment and copied down variables and the formula.

    ___ ounces (Variable A)
    ___ centimeters (Variable B)
    ___cm width and ____cm deep (Variable C and D)

    2(A) + B + D/C.

               Carey wondered why the professor was guessing the values. Most of the other teachers would have wanted Carey to break out complex measuring interments. Although Carey was not going to complain, he would have preferred to guess himself.

               Repeating the professors posses, Carey attempted to levitated beans in the goblet. At first making the mistake of levitating the whole goblet and almost spilling the beans. He recast the spell specifically calling for the beans attention.  Carey had no idea what they weighted, only that they appeared just under twice the amount the professor had. He wrote 7 ounces on the paper. Most of the other estimated calculations were based on the professor own.


              Here Carey got confused. How can the answer be 16? He was sure he had more beans then the teacher did. He rechecked his math and found he reverse some of the numbers. He crossed it out and started it below.


              It was practically the same answer. He would have guessed around 24-30 beans. Carey realized there must have missed a step. Studying the board, he was at a lost. He couldn’t move the decimal. He knew he did not have 1797 beans. He looked around the room for to see if others had just as many problems. He was fighting the urge to give up and eat the beans so there was about 18 left.